Tuesday, May 6, 2008

Why can't Hilllary win more states?

I was talking a friend at work today, and we got to talking politics. He was an Obama supporter, but said he was worried because Hillary was winning all the big states and that might cause trouble in a general election. I was stunned, and later dissapointed that so many people have fallen into this logic trap. Thought I would take up some blogg space to spell out two reasons why we need to start talking about something else.
  1. Obama will win the 4 largest states in the General Election - It's true. Does anyone seriously think that Obama won't win California in the general election? Put it in the bank. It's going Democratic. Same with New York. Same with Pennsilvania. Just like all three have since 1992. Heck, New York even voted for Dukakis! These guys always go for the Dems. Primary's are not the same as general elections, and its a mistake to equate the two.
  2. The general election takes place IN ALL 50 STATES - Hillary's camp would have us think that the votes of the smaller states don't count. And she probably believes it's true too (after all, her campaign originally had no plans to campaign past Super Tuesday). However, the truth is that all the states count. Obama is winning all over the country, and his candidacy would put in play several states that Hillary can't like Virginia and Colorado.
And if you still aren't convinced, Obama has won 5 of the top 10 largest states (Texas, Illinois, North Carolin, Virginia, Maryland), and over half of the top 15. He's also won 22 of the remaining 33. Perhaps the real question we should be asking is why is Hillary's appeal so limited?

KP

Update: Check out this chart, particularly the number of states Obama has won by greater than 30 points.

Image:2008 Democratic Primaries Delegate Vote.png - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia



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